Soft 15 vs Dealer Ace

Basic strategy says hit. Here's what the math looks like across common rule sets.

Why Hit Is Correct

With the ace counting as 11, soft 15 can't bust on a single draw — you're effectively drawing for free to improve. Against dealer Ace (11.7% bust rate), standing on a soft total below 18 leaves too much EV on the table: most of your made-hand outcomes would still lose. Hit and reassess on the next card.

How the Play Changes Under Different Rules

The correct play changes across rule sets for this hand. The rows below show each distinct play — starting with the canonical 6-deck · H17 · no-surrender baseline.